[1]李盈,许昊*. 基于非线性混合模型的油松天然林树高曲线研究[J].西北林学院学报,2016,31(3):41-49.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2016.03.07]
　LI Ying,XU Hao*. Height-diameter Models of Pinus tabuliformis Based on Nonlinear Mixed Models[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2016,31(3):41-49.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2016.03.07]
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 基于非线性混合模型的油松天然林树高曲线研究()
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《西北林学院学报》[ISSN:1001-7461/CN:61-1202/S]

卷:
第31卷
期数:
2016年第3期
页码:
41-49
栏目:
出版日期:
2016-05-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Height-diameter Models of Pinus tabuliformis Based on Nonlinear Mixed Models
文章编号:
1001-7461(2016)03-0041-09
作者:
 李盈1; 许昊2*
 （1.宁夏理工学院，宁夏 石嘴山 753000；2.宁夏大学 经济管理学院，宁夏 银川 750000）
Author(s):
LI Ying1; XU Hao2*
 (1.Ningxia Institute of Science and Technology,Shizuishan,Ningxia 753000,China; 2.School of Economics and Management,Ningxia University,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750000,China)
关键词:
 ; 树高曲线; 非线性混合模型; 异方差; 油松
Keywords:
 ; height-diameter models;  nonlinear mixed effects models;  heteroscedasticity;  Pinus tabuliformis
分类号:
S791.254
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2016.03.07
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 树高和胸径作为重要的林分因子，二者的异速生长关系是林分生长与收获预估的基础。以北京市古石峪61块油松（Pinus tabuliformis）天然林样地为研究对象，样地按郁闭度CD≥0.6（类型Ⅰ）、0.5≤CD＜0.6（类型Ⅱ）、0.4≤CD＜0.5（类型Ⅲ）、0.3≤CD＜0.4（类型Ⅳ）和CD＜0.3（类型Ⅴ）划分5个等级类型，采用非线性混合模型方法，从26种常用树高曲线中选择拟合精度最高的作为基础模型，以类型和样地作为随机效应，分别基于单水平和嵌套二水平，考虑异方差构建最优的油松天然林树高曲线。采用AIC、BIC和负2倍的对数似然值对不同模型的精度进行比较，并用平均绝对误差、剩余均方根误差和调整后的决定系数对模型进行检验。结果表明，混合参数个数不同，模型预测精度不同；考虑异方差结构的嵌套2水平非线性混合模型预测精度高，调整后的决定系数达0.924 4，剩余均方根误差为0.842 1，可以准确地反映油松树高与胸径的关系，但与以样地作为随机效应的单水平样模型的差异不显著。
Abstract:
 Tree height and diameter at breast height are two important forest factors.The allometric growth between two factors is the basis for the forecast of stand growth and harvest.In this study,61 plots of Pinus tabuliformis stands in Gushiyu Village,Beijing were used as research objects,each plot was divided into five classes by stand canopy density(CD):CD≥0.6 (Type Ⅰ),0.5≤CD＜0.6 (Type Ⅱ),0.4≤CD＜0.5 (Type Ⅲ),0.3≤CD＜0.4 (Type Ⅳ),and CD＜0.3 (Type Ⅴ).The best model from 26 height curve functions was selected to model the height-diameter relationships of P.tabuliformis with one level (type or plot effect) and nested two-level (nested effects of type and plot) nonlinear mixed effects (NLME) models.Then the best model which had the lowest AIC,BIC and -2Log likelihood was chosen.Evaluation statistics,such as absolute mean residual (AMR),root mean square error (RMSE),and adjusted coefficient of determination (adj-R2) were used for precision analysis and comparison of different models.The results showed that there were different prediction accuracies of NLME models with different mixed parameters.The nested two-level NLME model considering heteroscedasticity structure possessed with predictable accuracy,with the high adjusted determination coefficient of 0.924 4 and root mean square error of 0.842 1.The nested two-level NLME model would be allowed for estimating accuracy the height-diameter relationships of P.tabuliformis,but there were no significant differences between the nested two-level NLME model and the one level (plots) NLME model.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
 收稿日期：2015-06-04修回日期：2016-01-20
作者简介：李盈，女，研究方向：森林可持续经营及森林多功能。E-mail：lying1558@163.com
*通信作者：许昊，男，博士，研究方向：森林可持续经营及森林多功能。E-mail：xhao0202@163.com
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