[1]马梓策,于红博*,张巧凤,等. 基于CA-Markov模型的锡林河流域土地利用变化及预测分析[J].西北林学院学报,2020,35(2):169-177.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2020.02.25]
 MA Zi-ce,YU Hong-bo*,ZHANG Qiao-feng,et al. Land Use Change and Forecast Analysis in the Xilin River Basin Based on CA-Markov Model[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2020,35(2):169-177.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2020.02.25]
点击复制

 基于CA-Markov模型的锡林河流域土地利用变化及预测分析()
分享到:

《西北林学院学报》[ISSN:1001-7461/CN:61-1202/S]

卷:
第35卷
期数:
2020年第2期
页码:
169-177
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Land Use Change and Forecast Analysis in the Xilin River Basin Based on CA-Markov Model
文章编号:
1001-7461(2020)02-0169-09
作者:
 马梓策于红博*张巧凤曹聪明
 (内蒙古师范大学 地理科学学院,内蒙古 呼和浩特 010022)
Author(s):
 MA Zi-ceYU Hong-bo*ZHANG Qiao-fengCAO Cong-ming
 (College of Geography Science,Inner Mongolia Normal University,Hohhot 010022,Inner Mongolia,China)
关键词:
 锡林河流域土地利用CA-Markov模型
Keywords:
 Xilin River Basin land use CA-Markov model
分类号:
S771.8
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2020.02.25
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 研究土地利用变化特征及预测未来土地利用变化的趋势,对经济平衡发展、提高生态环境质量、实现土地资源合理利用具有重要意义。以锡林河流域为研究区,对Landsat 2000、2005、2010年和2015年4期遥感数据进行目视解译,采用土地利用结构分析方法、重心迁移模型和CA-Markov模型,分析研究区16 a间土地利用演变特征,并对2030年土地利用情况进行预测。结果表明:1)2000-2015年,草地、林地和耕地呈波动变化,水域面积缓慢增加,建设用地不断扩张,未利用地面积在不断减少。建设用地、耕地和未利用地重心具有明显的方向性移动,耕地先向南后向北移动,建设用地主要向西北方向扩张,未利用土地重心持续向北移动。2)研究区综合土地利用动态度为5.70%,变化速率较快;锡林浩特市和各苏木土地利用变化速率差异较大,总体表现为中游>下游>上游;不同土地利用类型动态度为建设用地>水域>林地>耕地>未利用土地>草地,即建设用地变化最快。3)研究区土地利用变化的主要方向为草地和未利用地的相互转换、耕地和草地的互相转换以及建设用地的不断扩张。4)2030年预测结果表明,耕地面积继续增加,速率有所下降,重心向西南方向移动;林地延续之前变化趋势,稳中有升;草地和未利用地面积继续减少,且未利用地重心持续向北移动;建设用地扩张明显,重心向锡林浩特市中心移动,速度减缓;水域有少量增加。CA-Markov模型与土地利用重心迁移模型相结合,实现了对未来耕地、建设用地和未利用土地的迁移方向的预测,可以为研究区提高草地退化防治效果、土地管理政策的制定和实施、城乡建设、土地利用规划等提供理论指导。
Abstract:
 Studying the characteristics of land use change and predicting the developmental trend of land use are of great significance to balance economic development,improve the quality of ecological environment and realize the rational utilization of land resources.Taking the Xilin River Basin as the research area,the four remote sensing data of Landsat 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 were visually interpreted.The land use structure analysis method,land use transfer model and CA-Markov model were used to analyze the land use evolution characteristics of the study area in 16 years,and the land use situation in 2030 was predicted.The results showed that:1) grassland occupied the dominant position in the study area from 2000 to 2015,and the area first increased and then decreased.The woodland overall showed an increasing trend.The cultivated land first decreased and then increased,and the water area showed an increasing trend.The construction land was expanding,while the unused land was decreasing.The construction land,cultivated land and unused land presented obvious directional movement.The cultivated land first moved to south and then northward.The construction land mainly expanded toward northwest,and the unused land continued to move northward.2) From 2000 to 2015,the dynamic degree of comprehensive land use in the whole basin was 5.70%,and the rate of change was faster; the rate of land use change in Xilinhot city varied greatly,showing as the middle reaches>the lower reaches>the upper reaches; the dynamic degree of different land use types in the whole basin was construction land>water area>forest land>cultivated land>unused land>grassland,that is,the change of construction land was the fastest.3) From 2000 to 2015,the main directions of land use change in the study area were the conversion of grassland and unused land,the conversion of cultivated land and grassland,and the continuous expansion of construction land.4) The forecast results in 2030 showed that the cultivated land area would continue to increase with decreasing speed,and it would move to the southwest; the change trend of the forest land would continue to increase as before; the area of grassland and unused land would continue to decrease,and the unused land would continue to move northward; the expansion of construction land was obvious,it would move to the center of Xilinhot city,and the speed would slow down; and the water area would increase slightly.

相似文献/References:

[1]李亚藏,梁彦兰,王庆成. 铅对山梨和山荆子光合作用和叶绿素荧光特性的影响[J].西北林学院学报,2012,27(05):21.
 LI Ya-cang,LIANG Yan-lan,WANG Qing-cheng. Influence of Pb on Photosynthesis and Chlorophyll Fluorescence Characteristics in Pyrus ussuriensis and Malus baccata [J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2012,27(2):21.
[2]张小咏,李佳,杨艳昭,等. 基于SWAT模型的长江源区径流模拟[J].西北林学院学报,2012,27(05):38.
 ZHANG Xiao-yong,LI Jia,YANG Yan-zhao,et al. Runoff Simulation of the Catchment of the Headwaters of the Yangtze River Based on SWAT Model[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2012,27(2):38.
[3]杨红旗,陈广辉,王金林. PVAc改性酚醛树脂制备铝木复合材料研究[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):170.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.34]
 YANG Hong-qi,CHEN Guang-hui,WANG Jin-lin. PF Adhesive Modified by PVAc for Manufacturing Technology of Decorative Fiberboard with Aluminum Foils[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(2):170.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.34]
[4]江涛,李秀荣,谢延军,等. 微波预处理对巨尾桉木材渗透性的影响[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.35]
 JIANG Tao,LI Xiu-rong,XIE Yan-jun,et al. Effects of Microwave Pretreatment on the Permeability of Eucalyptus grandis×Eucalyptus urophylla[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(2):174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.35]
[5]牛晓霆,王逢瑚,曹新民. 明清家具匠师原木下料的工艺原则及措施[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):178.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.36]
 NIU Xiao-ting,WANG Feng-hu,CAO Xin-min. Techniques and Principles of Log Cuttings of Furniture Makers in Ming and Qing Dynasties[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(2):178.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.36]
[6]吕金阳,覃卓凯,舒辉,等. 银杉木材构造美学价值[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):183.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.37]
 LV Jin-yang,QIN Zhuo-kai,SHU Hui,et al. Esthetical Values in Wood Structure of Cathaya argyrophylla[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(2):183.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.37]
[7]杨艳红,张海敏,孙景荣. 基于传统文化视角的现代家具设计探析[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):188.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.38]
 YANG Yan-hong,ZHANG Hai-min,SUN Jing-rong. Study of Modern Furniture Design Based on Traditional Culture[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(2):188.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.38]
[8]黄圣游,叶喜. 新中式家具“中式”传统的界定[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):192.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.39]
 HUANG Sheng-You,YE Xi. Definition of Traditional Element in New Chinese Style Furniture[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(2):192.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.39]
[9]韩维生,赵明磊,王宏斌. 基于阈限理论的设计尺度体系[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):197.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.40]
 HAN Wei-sheng,ZHAO Ming-lei,WANG Hong-bin. Design Scale System Based on Threshold Theory[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(2):197.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.40]
[10]宋杰,侯建军,申黎明. 按摩椅按摩头包覆层对按摩舒适性的影响[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):202.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.41]
 SONG Jie,HOU Jian-jun,SHEN Li-ming. Influence of Massager Coat Layer of Massage Chairs on the Degree of Comfort[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(2):202.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.41]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
 收稿日期:2019-05-28修回日期:2019-07-16
基金项目:国家自然科学基金 (41661009);内蒙古自然基金(2017MS0408);内蒙古教育厅(NJZY17047)。
作者简介:马梓策,男,硕士在读,研究方向:生物地理学。E-mail:454048154@qq.com
*通信作者:于红博,女,副教授,硕士生导师,研究方向:生态建模及遥感图像处理。E-mail:1106275721@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: