[1]于达勇,樊智丰,马长乐*. 不同碳排放模式下云南榧树适生区分布研究[J].西北林学院学报,2023,38(3):40-46.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2023.03.06]
　YU Da-yong,FAN Zhi-feng,MA Chang-le*. Distribution of Suitable Areas of Torreya yunnanensis Under Different Carbon Emission Modes[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2023,38(3):40-46.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2023.03.06]
点击复制

 不同碳排放模式下云南榧树适生区分布研究()
分享到：

《西北林学院学报》[ISSN:1001-7461/CN:61-1202/S]

卷:
第38卷
期数:
2023年第3期
页码:
40-46
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-05-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Distribution of Suitable Areas of Torreya yunnanensis Under Different Carbon Emission Modes
文章编号:
1001-7461(2023)03-0040-07
作者:
 于达勇1; 樊智丰1; 马长乐1; 2*
 （1.西南林业大学 园林园艺学院，云南 昆明 650224；2.西南林业大学 国家林业和草原局西南风景园林工程技术研究中心，云南 昆明 650224）
Author(s):
 YU Da-yong1; FAN Zhi-feng1; MA Chang-le1; 2*
 （1.School of Landscape Architecture and Horticulture,Southwest Forestry University,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China; 2.Southwest Landscape Architecture Engineering Technology Research Center,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Kunming 650224,Yunnan,China）
关键词:
 ; 云南榧树; 适生区; 气候变化; Maxent模型
Keywords:
Torreya yunnanensis;  suitable area;  climate change;  Maxent model
分类号:
S791.53
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2023.03.06
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 研究气候变化背景下云南榧树适生区分布，有助于理解该物种分布区的变迁历史和未来保护策略的制定。基于45个有效地理分布点以及19个环境气候变量，利用Maxent模型与ArcGIS对不同时期云南榧树的适生区进行模拟，其ROC特征曲线下的面积接近于1，MaxEnt模型的预测准确度高，可用于预测云南榧树适生区。结果表明，刀切法Jackknife和气候累计贡献率显示，影响云南榧树分布的主导环境变量为最暖季度降水量（bio18）和最冷月份最低温（bio6）。自末次盛冰期至全新世中期再到当前，云南榧树种群质心迁移路线为高黎贡山—丽江—维西，面积变化呈先增加再减少的趋势，当前我国云南榧树主要分布于云南、四川和西藏等地区，预测2070年在4种不同碳排放模式下，云南榧树适生区均发生不同程度的北移，且碳排放越高北移程度越明显。随着历史时间的推移，云南榧树适生区呈向北迁移的趋势，在未来全球气候变暖的情景下，云南榧树的分布面积不会减少，四川极可能成为云南榧树新的分布区。
Abstract:
Torreya yunnanensis is a national key protected plant.Studying the distribution of suitable habitat of T.yunnanensis under the background of climate change will help us to understand the historical changes of the species distribution area and the formulation of future conservation strategies.Based on 45 occurrence records and 19 climatic variables,the potential suitable areas of T.yunnanensis in different periods were simulated by MaxEnt model and ArcGIS.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was close to 1,indicating that the MaxEnt model had high prediction accuracy and could be used to predict the suitable distribution area of T.yunnanensis.The results of Jackknife method and the contribution rate of climate showed that the dominant environmental variables affecting the distribution were the precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18) and the min temperature of the coldest month (bio6).From the last glacial maximum to the middle Holocene,and then to the present,the centroid migration route was Gaoligong Mountain-Lijiang-Weixi,with an area change trend of first increasing and then decreasing.At present,T.yunnanensis is mainly distributed in Yunnan,Sichuan and Tibet,it is predicted that the suitable growth area would migrate northward in varying degrees under four different carbon emission modes in 2070,and the higher the carbon emission,the more obvious the northward shift.With the passage of historical time,the suitable area showed a trend of migrating northward.The distribution area would not decrease under future global warming,and Sichuan Province would be likely to become a new distribution area.

相似文献/References:

[1]李亚藏,梁彦兰,王庆成. 铅对山梨和山荆子光合作用和叶绿素荧光特性的影响[J].西北林学院学报,2012,27(05):21.
　LI Ya-cang,LIANG Yan-lan,WANG Qing-cheng. Influence of Pb on Photosynthesis and Chlorophyll Fluorescence Characteristics in Pyrus ussuriensis and Malus baccata [J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2012,27(3):21.
[2]张小咏,李佳,杨艳昭,等. 基于SWAT模型的长江源区径流模拟[J].西北林学院学报,2012,27(05):38.
　ZHANG Xiao-yong,LI Jia,YANG Yan-zhao,et al. Runoff Simulation of the Catchment of the Headwaters of the Yangtze River Based on SWAT Model[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2012,27(3):38.
[3]杨红旗,陈广辉,王金林. PVAc改性酚醛树脂制备铝木复合材料研究[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):170.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.34]
　YANG Hong-qi,CHEN Guang-hui,WANG Jin-lin. PF Adhesive Modified by PVAc for Manufacturing Technology of Decorative Fiberboard with Aluminum Foils[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):170.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.34]
[4]江涛,李秀荣,谢延军,等. 微波预处理对巨尾桉木材渗透性的影响[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.35]
　JIANG Tao,LI Xiu-rong,XIE Yan-jun,et al. Effects of Microwave Pretreatment on the Permeability of Eucalyptus grandis×Eucalyptus urophylla[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.35]
[5]牛晓霆,王逢瑚,曹新民. 明清家具匠师原木下料的工艺原则及措施[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):178.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.36]
　NIU Xiao-ting,WANG Feng-hu,CAO Xin-min. Techniques and Principles of Log Cuttings of Furniture Makers in Ming and Qing Dynasties[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):178.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.36]
[6]吕金阳,覃卓凯,舒辉,等. 银杉木材构造美学价值[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):183.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.37]
　LV Jin-yang,QIN Zhuo-kai,SHU Hui,et al. Esthetical Values in Wood Structure of Cathaya argyrophylla[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):183.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.37]
[7]杨艳红,张海敏,孙景荣. 基于传统文化视角的现代家具设计探析[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):188.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.38]
　YANG Yan-hong,ZHANG Hai-min,SUN Jing-rong. Study of Modern Furniture Design Based on Traditional Culture[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):188.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.38]
[8]黄圣游,叶喜. 新中式家具“中式”传统的界定[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):192.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.39]
　HUANG Sheng-You,YE Xi. Definition of Traditional Element in New Chinese Style Furniture[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):192.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.39]
[9]韩维生,赵明磊,王宏斌. 基于阈限理论的设计尺度体系[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):197.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.40]
　HAN Wei-sheng,ZHAO Ming-lei,WANG Hong-bin. Design Scale System Based on Threshold Theory[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):197.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.40]
[10]宋杰,侯建军,申黎明. 按摩椅按摩头包覆层对按摩舒适性的影响[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):202.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.41]
　SONG Jie,HOU Jian-jun,SHEN Li-ming. Influence of Massager Coat Layer of Massage Chairs on the Degree of Comfort[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):202.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.41]
[11]于达勇,樊智丰,马长乐*,等. 云南榧树群落种内与种间竞争研究[J].西北林学院学报,2022,37(1):47.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2022.01.07]
　YU Da-yong,FAN Zhi-feng,MA Chang-le*,et al. Intra-and Inter-specific Competition of Torreya yunnanensis Community[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2022,37(3):47.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2022.01.07]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
 收稿日期：2022-04-10修回日期：2022-05-19
基金项目：云南省农业联合项目（202101BD070001-100），国家自然科学基金（31360037），云南省教育厅基金（2021Y260）。
第一作者：于达勇。研究方向：植物群落生态。E-mail:1933917523@qq.com
*通信作者：马长乐，博士生导师，教授。研究方向：风景园林。E-mail:machangle@sina.com
更新日期/Last Update: