[1]李秋娟,陈绍志,赵荣*. 中国锯材进口变化及影响因素的实证分析[J].西北林学院学报,2018,33(4):282-288.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2018.04.45]
　LI Qiu-juan,CHEN Shao-zhi,ZHAO Rong*. An Empirical Analysis on China’s Sawn Timber Import and Its Influencing Factors[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2018,33(4):282-288.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2018.04.45]
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 中国锯材进口变化及影响因素的实证分析()
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《西北林学院学报》[ISSN:1001-7461/CN:61-1202/S]

卷:
第33卷
期数:
2018年第4期
页码:
282-288
栏目:
出版日期:
2018-07-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
 An Empirical Analysis on China’s Sawn Timber Import and Its Influencing Factors
文章编号:
1001-7461(2018)04-0282-07
作者:
 李秋娟; 陈绍志; 赵荣*
 （中国林业科学研究院 林业科技信息研究所，北京 100091）
Author(s):
 LI Qiu-juan; CHEN Shao-zhi; ZHAO Rong*
 (Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China)
关键词:
 ; 锯材; 进口; 天然林保护政策; 影响因素; 引力模型
Keywords:
 ; sawn timber;  import;  natural forest protection policy;  influencing factors;  gravity model
分类号:
S326.2
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2018.04.45
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 分析中国锯材进口变化趋势及影响因素，为优化锯材进口贸易结构和保障国内木材供需平衡提供科学依据。运用1997-2015年中国与10个主要锯材进口贸易国的面板数据，在传统贸易引力模型的基础上，根据锯材进口贸易的特点，引入新的变量构建扩展的贸易引力模型，分析了影响中国锯材进口的主要因素及其影响方向和程度。结果表明，贸易伙伴国的国内生产总值GDPjt的估计系数为0.312，表明在其他条件不变的情况下，贸易伙伴国的国内生产总值每增长1%，中国锯材进口量将增加0.312%；两国之间的距离Dijt的估计系数为-1.765，说明中国与锯材进口来源国之间的距离每增长1%，中国锯材进口量将减少1.765%；两国人均蓄积量的差异ADFVijt的估计系数为0.451，说明两国人均森林蓄积差异每增加1%，中国锯材进口量将增加0.451%；中国经济增长对锯材进口影响并不明显，主要靠木材下游产业出口的拉动；进口锯材是出口木家具的主要原材料，中国木家具出口量FEit的估计系数为0.413，说明中国木家具出口量每增加1%，中国锯材进口量将增加0.413%；两国之间汇率Rijt的估计系数为0.037，说明人民币对锯材进口贸易国货币汇率每升值1%，中国从贸易国进口锯材量将增加0.037%；中国实施的天然林保护政策以及贸易伙伴国实施的原木出口限制政策均刺激了中国锯材进口量的增长。因此，应从促进锯材市场多元化、降低贸易运输成本、扩大植树造林、提高营林技术以及木材综合利用率等方面着手优化锯材进口贸易结构，降低锯材对外依存度，保障国内木材供需平衡。
Abstract:
 With the promotion of natural forest protection policy,the shortage of Chinas timber and the increase of imports of sawn timber have gradually been attracted the attention of the industry.Using the panel data of China and the top 10 importing countries of sawn timber during 1997 to 2015,the extended gravity model was established with the introduction of new variables based on classic gravity model and the characteristics of Chinas sawn timber import,and the influencing factors of China’s sawn timber import trade and its influencing direction and degree were analyzed in this paper.The empirical results showed as follows.If other conditions remain unchanged,each increase of 1% per capital gross domestic product (GDP) of trading partners will result an 0.312% increase of China’s sawn timber imports; each increase of 1% of the distance between China and trading partner will reduce 1.765% of China’s sawn timber imports; each increase of 1% of the difference of per capita forest volume between China and trade partners will increase 0.451% of China’s sawn timber imports.China’s economic growth on the impact of sawn timber imports was not significant,and the sawn timber imports was mainly driven by the exports of downstream timber industry.Imported sawn timber was the important material of exported wooden furniture,and each increase of 1% of China’s wooden furniture exports will increase 0.413% of China’s sawn timber imports; each increase of 1% of currency exchange rate between China and trading partners will increase 0.037% of China’s sawn timber imports.The implementations of China’s natural forest protection policy and the log export restriction policy of the trade partners stimulated the growth of China’s imports of sawn timber.Furthermore,some recommendations were proposed to optimize the import trade structure of sawn timber,reduce the foreign trade dependence and guarantee the balance of domestic timber supply and demand in the aspects of market diversification,decreasing transport costs,expanding afforestation,enhancing forest management technology,improving the comprehensive utilization of timber and so on.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
 收稿日期：2017-10-09修回日期：2018-01-05
基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目“天然林全面商业禁伐背景下中国木材安全风险及其防范研究”（17BGL248）。
作者简介：李秋娟，女，在读博士，研究方向：自然资源与环境经济。E-mail:lqj19839@163.com
*通信作者：赵荣，女，副研究员，研究方向：林业经济理论与政策。E-mail:zhaorong6@vip.163.com
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