[1]李曼,周之超*,刘焕才. 疏勒河流域绿洲面积动态变化及其预测研究[J].西北林学院学报,2021,36(4):167-174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2021.04.24]
　LI Man,ZHOU Zhi-chao*,LIU Huan-cai. Dynamic Change of Oasis Area and Its Prediction in the Shule River Basin[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2021,36(4):167-174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2021.04.24]
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 疏勒河流域绿洲面积动态变化及其预测研究()
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《西北林学院学报》[ISSN:1001-7461/CN:61-1202/S]

卷:
第36卷
期数:
2021年第4期
页码:
167-174
栏目:
出版日期:
2021-07-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Dynamic Change of Oasis Area and Its Prediction in the Shule River Basin
文章编号:
1001-7461(2021)04-0167-08
作者:
 李曼1; 2; 周之超1*; 刘焕才1
 （1.山西师范大学 地理科学学院，山西 临汾 041000；2.中国科学院 西北生态资源环境研究所，甘肃 兰州 730000）
Author(s):
 LI Man1; 2; ZHOU Zhi-chao1*; LIU Huan-cai1
 (1.School of Geographical Sciences,Shanxi Normal University,Linfen 041000,Shanxi,China; 2.Northwest Institute of Ecological Resources and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,Gansu,China）
关键词:
 ; 绿洲面积; 动态变化; 预测; 疏勒河流域
Keywords:
 ; oasis area;  dynamic change;  forecast;  Shule River Basin
分类号:
S731.1
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2021.04.24
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 绿洲是干旱区社会经济最为活跃的区域，为人类生存与发展提供了基本的物质资料，绿洲面积的动态变化对区域内人地关系和生态系统的安全产生重大影响。以疏勒河流域1985、1995、2000、2005、2010、2015年和2018年7期遥感影像为数据源，运用转移矩阵和土地利用动态度模型，对疏勒河流域近34 a土地利用变化过程进行系统分析，以2010-2015年转移概率矩阵构建CA-Markov模型模拟2030年和2040年土地利用结构。结果表明：1）1985-2018年疏勒河流域绿洲面积增加了606.27 km2，其中耕地、水域、建设用地面积均呈增加趋势，建设用地增幅高达205.95%，林地、未利用地面积呈减少趋势，受降水影响，草地面积变化不稳定。各土地利用类型之间存在大面积、高比例的动态转移，其中耕地、草地和未利用地之间的转化最为活跃。2）在绿洲系统内，耕地、林地等土地类型向草地和未利用地转移显著，说明当地生态环境呈衰退趋势。3）到2030年，绿洲面积相比2018年增加量将高达3 755.59 km2，其中耕地、林地、草地、水域、建设用地增加面积分别为73.56、136.32、3 144.29、249.03，132.44 km2；到2040年，绿洲面积增加幅度变小，耕地、未利用地面积较2030年有所减少，减少量分别为20、45 km2，林地、水域、建设用地面积有所增加，增加量分别为35、25、5 km2，尽管草地无明显变化，但研究区生态环境将有所改善，土地利用结构也将趋于合理。
Abstract:
 As the most active region of social economy activities in arid area,oasis provides basic resource for human existence and development.Therefore the dynamic change of oasis area will have a significant impact on the intra-regional man-land relationship and ecological security.In this study,using remote sensing images in 1985,1995,2000,2005,2010,2015 and 2018,the land use change process of the Shule River Basin in recent 34 years was systematically analyzed by applying transfer matrix and land use dynamic degree model.In addition,based on the transfer probability matrix from 2010-2015.A CA-Markov model was constructed to predict future land use structure in 2030 and 2040.The results showed that 1) the area of oasis in the basin increased by 606.27 km2 during 1985-2018.To be specific,the area of cultivated land,water body and construction land showed increasing trends,and the increase amplitude of construction land was up to 205.95%.The area of forest land and unutilized land decreased,and the change of grassland area was unstable due to the influence of precipitation.There was a large area and high proportion of dynamic transfer among different land use types,especially among cultivated land,grassland and unutilized land.2) In the oasis system,cultivated land and forest land was transferred to grassland and unutilized land significantly,indicating the degeneration of the local ecological environment.3) By 2030,the oasis area will increase by 3 755.59 km2 compared with that in 2018,including 73.56 km2 for cultivated land,136.32 km2 for forest land,3 144.29 km2 for grassland,249.03 km2 for water body and 32.44 km2 for construction land.By 2040,the increase range of oasis area would be slow,and the area of cultivated land and unutilized land will be reduce by 20 km2 and 45 km2,respectively compared with that in 2030.However,the area of forest land,water and construction land will increase by 35 km2,25 km2 and 5 km2 respectively.Although there is no obvious change in grassland,the ecological environment of the basin will be improved,and the land use structure tends to be rational.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
 收稿日期：2020-08-18修回日期：2020-09-21
基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年项目（41701062）。
作者简介：李曼，博士，副教授。研究方向：水资源对绿洲系统的影响。E-mail：limansx@163.com
*通信作者：周之超，硕士在读。研究方向：区域可持续发展。E-mail：1017222404@qq.com
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