[1]王佳楠,张志*. 基于Markov-PLUS模型的柴北缘土地利用变化及模拟分析[J].西北林学院学报,2022,37(3):139-148.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2022.03.20]
 WANG Jia-nan,ZHANG Zhi*. Land Use Change and Simulation Analysis in the Northern Margin of the Qaidam Basin Based on Markov-PLUS Model[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2022,37(3):139-148.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2022.03.20]
点击复制

 基于Markov-PLUS模型的柴北缘土地利用变化及模拟分析()
分享到:

《西北林学院学报》[ISSN:1001-7461/CN:61-1202/S]

卷:
第37卷
期数:
2022年第3期
页码:
139-148
栏目:
出版日期:
2022-05-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Land Use Change and Simulation Analysis in the Northern Margin of the Qaidam Basin Based on Markov-PLUS Model
文章编号:
1001-7461(2022)03-0139-10
作者:
 王佳楠12张志2*
 (1.青海省青藏高原北部地质过程与矿产资源重点实验室,青海 西宁 810000;2.中国地质大学(武汉) 地球物理与空间信息学院,湖北 武汉 430074)
Author(s):
 WANG Jia-nan12ZHANG Zhi2*
 (1.Key Laboratory of the Northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Geological Processes and Mineral Resources,Xining 81000,Qinghai,China; 2.Institute of Geophysics and Geomatics,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,Hubei,China)
关键词:
 柴达木盆地北缘土地利用Markov-PLUS模型Landsat
Keywords:
 northern margin of the Qaidam basin land use Markov-PLUS model Landsat
分类号:
S771.8
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2022.03.20
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 以柴达木盆地北缘为研究区域,分析近30 a柴北缘土地利用时空变化,可为区域生态环境保护 、土地利用方式优化提出建议。基于1990、2000、2010、2020年4期Landsat影像数据,获取土地利用空间分布数据,借助转移矩阵、重心模型对近30 a柴北缘土地利用时空变化及驱动力计算分析,利用Markov-PLUS复合模型对2040年柴北缘土地利用变化进行预测和模拟。结果表明:1)未利用地、林地、水域是柴北缘的主要用地类型。近30 a耕地面积缓慢增加,重心向西南方向移动,建设用地面积增长迅速,林地、草地、水域面积总体呈上升趋势,重心都向西北方向移动,未利用地面积持续下降。2)使用FLUS模型与Markov-PLUS模型分别预测柴北缘2020年土地利用情况并对比分析,Markov-PLUS模型比FLUS模型的模拟准确性更高。3)2040年多情景模拟结果表明,柴北缘土地利用整体格局一致性较高,城镇发展和耕地保护情景下均会挤占林地、草地,对可持续发展造成威胁,在区域生态安全建设中应加以重视。PLUS模型与Markov模型相结合,实现了对未来土地利用斑块级的精准预测,可为未来提升柴北缘生态退化整治效果、城镇开发边界与生态保护红线的制定与规划等提供科学决策参考。
Abstract:
 Taking the northern margin of the Qaidam Basin as the study area,the spatio-temporal changes and transformations of land use in the past 30 years were analyzed.Suggestions for regional eco-environmental protection and land use optimization were put forward.Based on the 4-period Landsat images of 1990,2000,2010 and 2020,the spatial distribution data of the land use were obtained.Using transfer matrix and barycenter model,the spatial and temporal changes of land use were analyzed and the land use pattern in 2040 was simulated by using the Markov-PLUS model.The results showed that 1) unused land,woodland and water area were the main land use types in the region.In the past 30 years,the area of cultivated land increased slowly,the key areas of different land use types moved to the southwest,the area of construction land increased rapidly,the area of woodland,grassland and water area increased generally,and the key area moved to the northwest.The area of unused land continued to decline.2) FLUS model and Markov-PLUS model were used to forecast the land use in 2020 and the results were compared.The simulation precision of Markov-PLUS model was higher than that of FLUS model.3) The results of multi-scenario simulation in 2040 showed that the overall pattern of land use in the region would be highly consistent,and both urban development and cultivated land conservation scenarios would threaten the sustainable development of the region,attention should be paid to the construction of regional ecological security.The combination of PLUS model and the Markov model can realize the accurate prediction of future land use in patch level,it provides scientific decision-making reference for improving the effect of ecological degradation management,planning urban development boundary and ecological protection red line in the future.

相似文献/References:

[1]李亚藏,梁彦兰,王庆成. 铅对山梨和山荆子光合作用和叶绿素荧光特性的影响[J].西北林学院学报,2012,27(05):21.
 LI Ya-cang,LIANG Yan-lan,WANG Qing-cheng. Influence of Pb on Photosynthesis and Chlorophyll Fluorescence Characteristics in Pyrus ussuriensis and Malus baccata [J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2012,27(3):21.
[2]张小咏,李佳,杨艳昭,等. 基于SWAT模型的长江源区径流模拟[J].西北林学院学报,2012,27(05):38.
 ZHANG Xiao-yong,LI Jia,YANG Yan-zhao,et al. Runoff Simulation of the Catchment of the Headwaters of the Yangtze River Based on SWAT Model[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2012,27(3):38.
[3]杨红旗,陈广辉,王金林. PVAc改性酚醛树脂制备铝木复合材料研究[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):170.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.34]
 YANG Hong-qi,CHEN Guang-hui,WANG Jin-lin. PF Adhesive Modified by PVAc for Manufacturing Technology of Decorative Fiberboard with Aluminum Foils[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):170.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.34]
[4]江涛,李秀荣,谢延军,等. 微波预处理对巨尾桉木材渗透性的影响[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.35]
 JIANG Tao,LI Xiu-rong,XIE Yan-jun,et al. Effects of Microwave Pretreatment on the Permeability of Eucalyptus grandis×Eucalyptus urophylla[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):174.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.35]
[5]牛晓霆,王逢瑚,曹新民. 明清家具匠师原木下料的工艺原则及措施[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):178.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.36]
 NIU Xiao-ting,WANG Feng-hu,CAO Xin-min. Techniques and Principles of Log Cuttings of Furniture Makers in Ming and Qing Dynasties[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):178.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.36]
[6]吕金阳,覃卓凯,舒辉,等. 银杉木材构造美学价值[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):183.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.37]
 LV Jin-yang,QIN Zhuo-kai,SHU Hui,et al. Esthetical Values in Wood Structure of Cathaya argyrophylla[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):183.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.37]
[7]杨艳红,张海敏,孙景荣. 基于传统文化视角的现代家具设计探析[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):188.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.38]
 YANG Yan-hong,ZHANG Hai-min,SUN Jing-rong. Study of Modern Furniture Design Based on Traditional Culture[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):188.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.38]
[8]黄圣游,叶喜. 新中式家具“中式”传统的界定[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):192.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.39]
 HUANG Sheng-You,YE Xi. Definition of Traditional Element in New Chinese Style Furniture[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):192.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.39]
[9]韩维生,赵明磊,王宏斌. 基于阈限理论的设计尺度体系[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):197.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.40]
 HAN Wei-sheng,ZHAO Ming-lei,WANG Hong-bin. Design Scale System Based on Threshold Theory[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):197.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.40]
[10]宋杰,侯建军,申黎明. 按摩椅按摩头包覆层对按摩舒适性的影响[J].西北林学院学报,2013,28(01):202.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.41]
 SONG Jie,HOU Jian-jun,SHEN Li-ming. Influence of Massager Coat Layer of Massage Chairs on the Degree of Comfort[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2013,28(3):202.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2013.01.41]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
 收稿日期:2021-10-27修回日期:2021-11-28
基金项目:青海省青藏高原北部地质过程与矿产资源重点实验室专项基金(2019-kz-01);青海省科技厅创新平台建设专项项目(2019-ZJ-T04)。
第一作者:王佳楠。研究方向:资源环境遥感。E-mail:562265952@qq.com
*通信作者:张志,教授,硕士生导师。研究方向:遥感地质。E-mail:171560655@qq.com
更新日期/Last Update: