[1]覃鑫浩. 基于混合效应的兴安落叶松单木断面积生长模型研究[J].西北林学院学报,2022,37(4):223-230.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2022.04.30]
　TAN Xin-hao. Growth Model of Individual-Tree Basal Area for Larix gmelinii Based on Mixed Effect Approach[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2022,37(4):223-230.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2022.04.30]
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 基于混合效应的兴安落叶松单木断面积生长模型研究()
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《西北林学院学报》[ISSN:1001-7461/CN:61-1202/S]

卷:
第37卷
期数:
2022年第4期
页码:
223-230
栏目:
出版日期:
2022-07-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Growth Model of Individual-Tree Basal Area for Larix gmelinii Based on Mixed Effect Approach
文章编号:
1001-7461(2022)04-0223-08
作者:
 覃鑫浩
 (国家林业和草原局 调查规划设计院，北京 100714)
Author(s):
 TAN Xin-hao
 (Academy of Forest Inventory and Planning,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Beijing 100714,China)
关键词:
 ; 兴安落叶松; 单木生长; 混合效应
Keywords:
Larix gmelinii;  growth model;  mixed effect approach
分类号:
S791.222
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2022.04.30
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 森林生长观测数据通常具有连续重复观测的特点，传统方法会得到有偏的参数估计，为准确预测兴安落叶松林分的生长动态，建立预估精度较高的林分生长收获混合效应模型，以期为内蒙古大兴安岭地区兴安落叶松的生长和经营提供科学依据。基于内蒙古大兴安岭地区第六次至第九次（2003-2018）全国森林资源连续清查数据，筛选出以兴安落叶松为优势树种的样地626块，样木株数60 279株。其中501块样地的47 524株兴安落叶松数据用于构建兴安落叶松的胸高断面积生长预估模型，采用剩余的125块样地的12 755株兴安落叶松数据对构建的模型进行独立检验。结果表明，胸径的倒数（1/DBH）、每公顷株数（NT）、比对象木大的胸高断面积之和（BAL）、坡度和坡向的组合（SLcos）对天然林内兴安落叶松的生长有显著影响。相比于传统的基础模型，考虑样地效应的混合效应模型显著地改善了胸高断面积生长预估模型的表现，决定系数（R2）从0.353 7提高到0.488 6，平均绝对误差（Bias）和均方根误差（RMSE）均显著减少。混合效应模型优于传统的基础模型，模型有一定的生物学意义和统计可靠性。
Abstract:
 Forest growth data are generally repeatedly observed with hierarchical structure,which result in biased parameter estimation.In order to accurately predict the growth dynamics of Larix gmelinii stand,the stand growth and yield model based on mixed effect approach with high prediction accuracy were established,which could provide scientific basis for the growth and management of L.gmelinii occurring in Daxing’an Mountains in Inner Mongolia.Based on the data of the 6th,7th,8th and 9th (2003-2018) Chinese National Forest Inventory in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,626 sample plots with L.gmelinii as dominant species were screened out with the number of sample trees of 60 279.Data from 501 sample plots,including 47 524 L.gmelinii trees were used to develop the basal area growth models,and 12 755 trees from the 125 sample plots were used to test the developed models.The results showed that the reciprocal of DBH (1/DBH),the number of trees per hectare (NT),the sum of the basal area (m2/hm2) in trees with DBHs larger than the subject tree’s DBH (BAL),and the combination of slope and aspect (SLcos) had significant impacts on the individual-tree basal area growth of L.gmelinii in the natural forest.Compared with the basic model based on traditional regression,the mixed effect model could significantly improve the performance of the model,and the determination coefficient (R2) increased from 0.353 7 to 0.488 6.In addition,the Bias,and RMSE were significantly reduced.The mixed effects model was superior to the basic model and had certain biological significance and statistical reliability.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
 收稿日期：2021-04-21修回日期：2021-07-15
基金项目：重点国有林区森林经营碳汇提升技术与对策研究（2020HXFWLXY007）。
第一作者：覃鑫浩，硕士，高级工程师。研究方向：森林经营、城市林业。E-mail：465823656@qq.com
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