[1]付宇,安慧君*,高明龙,等. 基于气候变化背景的东北岩高兰潜在分布区预测[J].西北林学院学报,2023,38(5):49-56.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2023.05.07]
　FU Yu,AN Hui-jun*,GAO Ming-long,et al. Prediction of Potential Distribution Area of Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum Based on Climate Change Background[J].JOURNAL OF NORTHWEST FORESTRY UNIVERSITY,2023,38(5):49-56.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2023.05.07]
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 基于气候变化背景的东北岩高兰潜在分布区预测()
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《西北林学院学报》[ISSN:1001-7461/CN:61-1202/S]

卷:
第38卷
期数:
2023年第5期
页码:
49-56
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
 Prediction of Potential Distribution Area of Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum Based on Climate Change Background
文章编号:
1001-7461(2023)05-0049-08
作者:
 付宇1; 安慧君1*; 高明龙1; 李贺新2; 张茹1
 （1.内蒙古农业大学 林学院，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010019；2.内蒙古自治区第二林业和草原监测规划院，内蒙古 兴安盟 137400）
Author(s):
 FU Yu1; AN Hui-jun1*; GAO Ming-long1; LI He-xin2; ZHNAG Ru1
 (1.Forest College,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010019,China,Inner Mongolia; 2.The Second Institute of Forestry Monitoring and Planning of Inner Mongolia,Xinggan League 137400,Inner Mongolia,China)
关键词:
 ; 东北岩高兰; MaxEnt模型; 气候变化; 物种分布变迁
Keywords:
Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum;  MaxEnt model;  climate change;  species distribution change
分类号:
Q949.754.2
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2023.05.07
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
 为探究东北岩高兰潜在适生区变化，明确其适宜分布情况，为科学保护和开发利用该物种提供理论依据，以东北岩高兰分布数据和30″分辨率的环境数据为基础，利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS，通过相关性分析以及VIF分析对环境因子进行筛选并建立模型，预测未来不同气候情景下的东北岩高兰潜在分布区。结果表明，受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）为0.998，达到了优秀水平预测结果；影响东北岩高兰分布的主要环境因素是最干季度平均温度、最冷月最低温和海拔，综合贡献值分别为50.2%、21.9%和5.5%，3项累计贡献率可达77.6%；东北岩高兰适生区几何中心一直是向南迁移的趋势，相邻2个时期最大迁移距离为76 988 m。气候变化背景下东北岩高兰最终适生区会继续向高海拔高纬度的低温地区迁移。研究结果为探查尚未发现的东北岩高兰分布、规划东北岩高兰引种栽培提供基础。
Abstract:
Empetrum nigrum var.japonicum is a rare plant with important medicinal and economic values growing in northeastern China.It is distributed in the North temperature and Arctic regions.With the intensification of global warming in recent years,the suitable range of E.nigrum var.japonicum may be further reduced.In order to explore the change of its potentially suitable area,clarify its suitable distribution,and provide a theoretical basis for scientific protection,development and utilization of this species,based on distribution data of E.nigrum var.japonicum and 30" resolution environmental data in the study area,MaxEnt model and ArcGIS were used to screen environmental factors and establish models through correlation analysis and VIF analysis to predict potentially suitable distribution area of E.nigrum var.japonicum under different climate scenarios in the future.The model indicated that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.998,which reached the excellent prediction result.The main environmental factors affecting the distribution of E.nigrum var.japonicum were the average temperature in the driest quarter and the minimum temperature and altitude in the coldest month,with comprehensive contributions of 50.2%,21.9% and 5.5%,respectively.The cumulative contribution of the three factors reached 77.6%.The geometric center of the suitable area of E.nigrum var.japonicum had always been the trend of southward migration,and the maximum migration distance of the two adjacent periods was 76 988 m.Under the background of climate change,E.nigrum var.japonicum final suitable areas would continue to migrate to higher elevations and latitudes.The results provide a basis for exploring the undiscovered distributions of and planning the introduction and cultivation of E.nigrum var.japonicum.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
 收稿日期：2022-08-05修回日期：2022-12-12
基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目(31660172)。
第一作者：付宇。研究方向：3S技术应用与资源监测评价。E-mail:540953921@qq.com
*通信作者：安慧君，博士，教授，博士生导师。研究方向：3S技术应用与资源监测评价。E-mail:dean6928@126.com
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